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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the tension triggered by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction

The succession of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, political struggles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".

Nocturnal Warfare

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track missile launches from across the border, a capacity provided through current data. From observation points, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.

Ongoing Risks

Following this, a large-caliber weapon engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it pressed on overhead toward its target.

Intermittently, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – experiencing conflict. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.

Every new proposal from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, continue.

Political Considerations

It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of consistently pushing Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.

Divergent Views

Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.

Present Conditions

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.

These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.

While new proposals based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on continued Western support.